Another sunny Monday… In February! Can you believe some cherry blossoms are already in bloom? Wild times we are living in.
Below are the most notable stories that came across my inbox this past week…
Foot traffic: Very exciting development in counting pedestrians from MIT shows the value of getting counting right and how science can help make cities better. (Fast Company)
Micromobility report: The State of Massachusetts assembled a special commission to study micromobility and their final report is a very thoughtful and thorough document that I hope some Oregon advocates can copy from. (Massachusetts DOT)
Gas prices: Because of the Trump War Against Iran we could be at the precipice of another gas price shock that sends people into bike shops and bus stops. (Associated Press)
Calling names: Noted bicycling superstar Hans “No Way” Rey has an idea for combatting the proliferation of anti e-bike laws sweeping the country: He think we should label anything that’s not a Class 1 (20 mph max, no throttle) as an “e-moped.” (Bicycle Retailer)
Florida, man: Looks like really good e-bike policy from Florida. Seriously. Instead of the boneheaded idea of regulating bike types, a new bill making its way through their statehouse would legislate behavior. Specifically it would create a 10 mph e-bike speed limit on paths and only when passing others. (Electrek)
Transforming lives: A wonderful profile of a 67-year old woman with osteoporosis from the UK who received an e-bike through a government program and credits the vehicle for changing her life for the better. (Oxford Mail)
Thanks to everyone who sent in links this week. The Monday Roundup is a community effort, so please feel free to send us any great stories you come across.
Thanks for reading.
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The notion that raised fuel prices will have any long term impact on American behavior should have been dispelled 50 years ago.
VMT is notoriously inelastic WRT gas price changes.
Short term we’re looking at -0.05 – -0.15 – so going from $3.50 to $4.50 (a 29% increase) would result in 2-4% decrease in VMT.
That’s 240-480 miles per year.
Long term (5 or more years) results in closer to -0.3 – so that change is now 8.7% or 1,000 miles.
But that needs to hold true for a long period.
At the end of the day even democratic presidents won’t let that happen – Barack Obama cleared the way for large scale fracking to avoid it.
With vehicles staying on the road for 12-20 years,you need serious sustained pressure just to bring vehcile size down (as we saw in the late 70’s early 80’s).
Given this inelasticity, and the fact that the US produces >2/34ds of it’s needs yearly (thugh we export some and import crude more suited to some of the refineries here) and there are midterms coming up (so expect policy to work to keep prices from ballooning too high).:
We may see a few extra people at bus stops and in bike shops – but I doubt it will move mode share.
I doubt fully doubt your numbers (though a citation would be handy), but I think it’s worth considering the long term implications of something like gentrification in inner Portland on these dynamics. I’d say that inner Portland residents of today are more likely to be relatively wealthy, and by extension more likely to drive – something that probably has contributed to declining mode share of both cycling and transit.
While richer people are less price sensitive than poor people, if they live in a place where bike/transit is actually good (i.e. inner Portland), it’s entirely reasonable to expect there to be a more noticeable effect in Portland than other places.
It remains to be seen what the actual ramifications of war in Iran are on the price of gas, but I think a national look at elasticity is only so telling. Someone who does not have a reasonable other short term choice will be much less likely to change behavior than someone who does.
Yeah. What will happen is everything will get a little bit more expensive because everything is oil.
Thank you, Hans! E-bikes should be pedal-assist only. Bicycles don’t have throttles. And, while we’re at it, they should be limited to 25 kph like in Europe. There’s no reason e-bikes should be able to go faster than the average recreational rider, especially on multi-use parkways. And yeah, I know there’s no limiter on a Dodge Charger. That’s an entirely different problem, and not really relevant here.
Does that also apply to bicyclists? You say average, let’s pretend average is 10 mph on a bike, does that mean the carbon fiber crowd will also have to go that slow on MUPs?
By now we all understand that all speed laws aren’t based on the average, it’s based on the 85th percentile speed, plus enforcement…
Nope. It doesn’t even mean e-bikers have to go that slow if they can pedal beyond the motor’s capacity.