Hold on tight everyone, it might be a bumpy ride. Last night’s election saw Donald Trump sweep back into power and it wasn’t even close. What happens next is anyone’s guess, but my timelines are dark. While Democrats were doomed at the national level, Portland elections offered a much different result. Looks like a political newcomer could be our next mayor and we’ve got an interesting mix of candidates poised for City Council wins.
And with our first-ever election by ranked-choice vote, we’re still waiting for ballots to be processed and tabulations to be run. As of this morning, just two of 12 Council positions have been called.
Before I get into a recap of the five local races, I want to remind everyone that today is Bike Happy Hour. I’ll be in the Rainbow Road Plaza on SE Ankeny between 27th and 28th from 4:00 to 6:00 pm. Come out and process the election with folks who know your name and will be happy to see you.
OK, let’s go…
In the race for Mayor, trucking company CEO and nonprofit leader Keith Wilson has a lead that is likely insurmountable. He jumped out to huge lead after the first batch of votes were tabulated and has continued to pick up votes from eliminated candidates each round. Wilson is currently leading Carmen Rubio 63% to 37%. Rubio and Rene Gonzalez were neck-and-neck for several rounds, followed by Mingus Mapps and then Liv Osthus. But since many Osthus voters also ranked Wilson and Rubio highly, they benefit hugely once Osthus’ votes are transferred. The fact that Wilson isn’t strongly disliked by many voters — unlike Gonzalez and Rubio — means he’ll likely coast to victory.
Now for Portland City Council races…
In District 1 (East), three candidates are in a tight race: former Multnomah County Commissioner and political veteran Loretta Smith, nonprofit leader Candace Avalos, and Multnomah County staffer (and former city hall staffer) Jamie Dunphy. While Smith and Avalos look the strong so far, the final selection is too close to call. One candidate that has done surprisingly well, and whose votes are helping push Smith up the charts, is political newcomer Noah Ernst. Transportation nonprofit leader former Portland Planning Committee member Steph Routh is still in the mix, but it will be a very tight race between her, Ernst, and former PBOT project manager Timur Ender.
In District 2 (North/Northeast), City Commissioner Dan Ryan looks to be the lone clear winner. Close behind is union organizer and policy advisor Elana Pirtle-Guiney and City of Portland policy manager Sameer Kanal. Those three appear to be the standouts thus far. Behind them are Portland Public School Board member Michelle DePass, former small business owner Nat West, and political advisory Marnie Glickman.
The race for three seats in District 3 (Southeast) appears to be easiest to predict, with former City Commissioner Steve Novick a clear winner and schoolteacher and union organizer Tiffany Koyama Lane and nonprofit leader Angelita Morillo in solid positions for a seat. Experienced government staffer at the local and state level, Kezia Wanner is in fourth, but has only about half the votes of those top three.
Wilson blew away the competition in a lopsided victory in the mayoral race. Much like everyone thought, it came down to a five person race between Wilson, Rene Gonzalez, Carmen Rubio, Mingus Mapps and Liv Osthus. Wilson had a commanding lead from the very first round of voting and his victory was never in doubt. Rubio and Gonzalez ran neck-and-neck for several rounds, followed by Mapps and then Osthus. Gonzalez’s fate was sealed in round 17 after Osthus’ 10,241 votes were distributed almost equally to Rubio and Wilson. Rubio and Gonzalez were separated by only 400 votes before Osthus was eliminated and her votes were spread to the remaining four. Rubio received 3,475 votes from Osthus voters, Wilson received 3,244, Mapps got 1,335 and Gonzalez tallied just 580.
District 4 (West/Sellwood) is the other race where one candidate appears to be a sure thing. Policy and legislative director Olivia Clark has a strong lead. Behind her could be a very tight race for the two other seats between economist Mitch Green, chief of staff to a Multnomah County Commissioner Eric Zimmerman, and Portland Police Bureau officer Eli Arnold. Our D4 expert Lisa Caballero is working on deeper dive into how the voting has gone in that district, so hang tight.
Results of these races could change in the coming day or two, so stay tuned as more votes are tabulated.
Check out Multnomah County’s results page here. And learn more about how votes are counted (something I wish I’d done more of before now!) here.
Thanks for reading.
BikePortland has served this community with independent community journalism since 2005. We rely on subscriptions from readers like you to survive. Your financial support is vital in keeping this valuable resource alive and well.
Please subscribe today to strengthen and expand our work.
Yeah, at least local results are generally encouraging (to me).
I have to say, after seeing how it went in practice, I absolutely love the ranked choice voting system. With, of course, the caveat that I think there are clear better forms of ranked choice voting, what we have now is great. I can’t fathom how anybody would prefer single votes over this. Baffling that some would prefer having their voice less heard on the ballot.
One thing I noted in particular – there is not a chance that with the old voting system we would have been able to see the result where Osthus got a 6% vote. Yeah, she was nowhere near winning, but we got to see that a not insignificant number of people thought she was worth ranking. That’s useful information! I love that we can now see who won, but also a real (not wishy washy poll related) indication of the alternatives people liked. And I got to help someone I liked well enough win, while also ranking other people higher without worrying about wasting my vote!
I hope we try again to get ranked choice state wide, after actually using it for a while. I voted yes on the measure this time, but maybe some people were reluctant since we haven’t even seen it in Portland yet. I would love to vote for representatives I actually like instead of having to defensively vote to fend off the bad option.
Some people are scared of change, and some people who support candidates that would do better under a less representative system will prefer the older system.
Really happy with how this turned out, he wasn’t my first pick but seems like a reasonable compromise, time/results will tell.
I think I feel similar to you John V. It’s really interesting to see how Osthus supporters had so much sway in knocking out Gonzalez because of how many of her voters’ votes were distributed to Wilson. This happened in the council races too. Can’t wait to digest the full results once they are in.
Maybe a semantics argument here but votes for one candidate aren’t “redistributed” to other candidates in RCV. The second or tertiary choice becomes valid if the primary one is not. If your #1 is Bob, #2 is Mary, and #3 is Suzy, your vote becomes “mobile” if Bob doesn’t make the cut-off, down the daisy chain till it finds a candidate that can make the cut-off.
Thanks Cyclekrieg. Maybe “transferred” is better? I’ll consider.
Migrated? I don’t know, it’s hard to describe. I think the quirks in explaining it make RCV less poplar than it should be. Because once you see how RCV works in practice, its exactly what most people want: the ability to vote closer to their beliefs, without opening the floodgates to wack-a-doodles. It’s also been proven to moderate candidates, as a typical candidate has to be able to pull in at least 60% of electorate’s first or second choices.
Also, its 20 years old, but still is just as valid: https://youtu.be/3kqLVeP7iHA?si=Da9C5id7YWrjRDv5
I think “transferred” is the nomenclature used by the county
It is called the single transferable vote, after all….
421 days for Keith to “end unsheltered homelessness”.
Tick, tock….
Yes that will be a fun question to see if he can do that. Another big question is will people who don’t see eye-to-eye politically actually come together and help on this or will people just throw stones from the sidelines and hope that he fails because he wasn’t their favorite candidate. Time will tell!
I’d be more optimistic if Keith brought anything to the table other than the status quo. He’d be 5th, maybe 6th in the polls if the progressive political machine hadn’t pivoted to him when Rubio imploded. How anyone believed what he sold is beyond me– it’s just more of the same. Except now our community centers will join our MUPs, our libraries, and natural areas as the latest public resource to be ceded to the service resistant.
That’s not “throwing stones”, that’s calling it what it is.
I feel like he was a legitimate candidate to win before the Rubio parking ticket fiasco. Certainly 3rd at worst behind Rubio/Gonzalez. And just have to laugh at “progressive political machine” – do you have any evidence to show that progressive politicians are engaging in machine politics in any sense? I’m sure you would identify me as part of the Portland progressive world, no one has ever promised me a job or other compensation in exchange for a vote.
Seeing as he was the only serious contender who wasn’t on the city council already… he is sort of by definition the least “more of the same”.
Ted Wheeler 2.0
Alright, here’s the rundown on why Keith Wilson’s 365-day plan to end tent and RV camping in Portland is likely to flop:
First off, Wilson’s pretty soft on enforcing anti-camping laws. Like, he seems almost allergic to it. He has experience sheltering people who want help, but we’re talking about a lot of folks who are either service-resistant or dealing with severe addiction and mental health issues. It’s a different game entirely, and he’s just not geared up for it.
Then there’s the money—or the lack of it. The city is basically broke. And we have a new, ultra-progressive city council that, let’s be honest, is more into “compassionate” gestures than cracking down on street camping. I don’t see them backing Wilson’s vision with the funds or the spine it would actually take to make this work.
And then there’s Jessica Vega Pederson over at the county. She’s got the cash but is pouring it into high-cost, long-term housing projects that serve her circle in what realists call the “homeless industrial complex.” She’s just not interested in addressing tent camping directly; instead, she’s building fancy apartments that cost a fortune and often get trashed by the exact people they’re meant to help. Now, with two new county commissioners (aka her lackeys—Singleton and Moyer) on her side, she’s pretty much calling the shots.
And even if Wilson did get the resources, where’s the plan for cleanup, safety, public health, and all the actual legwork it would take to keep encampments from popping right back up? It’s not just a “move them and they’re gone” situation.
So yeah, I’m calling it: the 365-day end-to-camping pledge is more fantasy than reality.
Please do tell, when has a politician ever been able to keep their promises in the timeline they promised?
I can’t think of any.
Keith will need support to do what he proposes. If he gets it, he just might succeed. But if those on the council (city and county) that continue to profit off the misery of keeping people on the streets, then he won’t.
In several draconian compassionate-fascist cities and small towns nationwide, there are several highly successful strategies to “end homelessness” or at least hide it from view, sweep it under the rug and so on:
In Columbia SC, with the state capitol and University of South Carolina, the local police are notorious for literally picking up homeless campers in the middle of the night and dropping them off at the city’s outer boundary – clear violations of basic human rights that apparently go unprosecuted – most of the homeless are black and the police are predominantly white. I’ve heard of many other cities doing this as well, and not just in the Deep South.
A second apparently legal method is to simply ban loitering, to make it a felony, and lock up the homeless. Many states still allow prisoners to be used as slaves (paid nearly nothing to do work), including in many “blue” states. According to a museum in Birmingham Alabama, this was common method just after the Civil War to deal with the numerous homeless ex-slaves, who were often chained together to form “chain gangs” to work at dirty industrial jobs.
Another method was make-work schemes, particularly in the early 1930s, when homeless laborers were conscripted (drafted) to build roads, sidewalks, park walls, and so on through the Federal Works Progress Administration (WPA) – including apparently many of Portland’s inner east side residential streets and sidewalks in the so-called streetcar suburbs (from a PBOT 2000 report).
I’m not endorsing any of these methods, but I am pointing out that they have been used and in many cases still are being used. We may think they ought to be illegal, and maybe they are, but there’s a lot that is illegal in our society and still tolerated.
Based on the preliminary results I’m quite pleased with ranked choice. The top people in my district are all ones that I ranked and seem quite qualified. I’m also quite pleased Gonzalez got thoroughly shellacked. He could have easily won the primary and been our mayor with a minority of support. I can’t remember the last time we had a mayor with 63% support. I hope they release Rubio votes next choices to see how many also supported Wilson only after Rubio.
Sorry, editing my comment. Yeah I see what you mean. But gosh, we can guess.
https://mcdcselectionsrcvprdst.z5.web.core.windows.net/a3df36c7-9b95-4614-a357-759ae2ca223f_City%20of%20Portland%20Mayor/2024-11-05_18-08-45_report_unofficial.html
I imagine Wilson after Rubio was an extremely common ballot
I’m… just kind of in awe that Portland elected a guy who owns a trucking company.
Yeah, a trucking company.
And this is seen as a win for cyclists, how?
I dunno, I don’t really think of freight trucks as being a huge negative in the bike advocacy world. Yes, freight advocates can and do prevent some very needed street changes, but we also all rely on trucks to deliver almost everything we use on a daily basis. Given that the likely other options were someone embroiled in a scandal involving seriously bad driving habits and a guy who spent public money on editing his Wikipedia page for political gain… it’s easy to see why people are more excited about Keith Wilson than Carmen Rubio or Rene Gonzalez
Blumdrew
Freight actually has a big influence on the bicycling environment. first , Wilson sounds OK and his green trucking efforts should be applauded.
Freight lobbyists are generous to political campaigns while explaining to politicians the benefits of their industry. OTC, who overlord transportation in Oregon, think highly of Freight when determining where transportation money is spent in Oregon.
Concessions granted to Freight are wider lanes, more lanes, and larger radius curves. All of these result in all vehicles traveling faster
Sometimes these road geometries enable truck drivers to drag their trailers onto the sidewalk while turning. Pedestrian fatalities have been a consequence of freight approved engineering right here in Portland.
So, I respectfully disagree that Freight does not bring negatives to the bicycling environment.
There really aren’t that many streets in Portland where the TSP gives a classification of Major Truck Street or greater. The city shouldn’t be giving priority to freight over bikes on a street like Belmont or Hawthorne by their own policy – where bikes and freight seemingly rank evenly (I will say that looking at the Major City Bikeway map seriously bums me out). If you include an analysis of pedestrians, then every major road in Portland should be favoring pedestrians over freight traffic with very few exceptions. Which should mean slower traffic, etc. Obviously the TSP is just a plan though.
Most of those issues you are touching on are localized to major roads (Powell, 82nd). Evidently I think biking should be practical and possible there, but I also think it should be designed in a way that makes an efficient freight delivery system practical. If I get into it more though I’ll spiral into a larger discussion of smaller warehouses, freight rail, and other ways our society should invest in more efficient freight delivery systems.
This is his trucking company: https://titanfs.com/. They’re rolling out BEV trucks and green diesel as well as nanny systems to help drivers stay alert. One of the metrics they publish is miles traveled without any injuries.
Given that we still need trucks for things like food (and bikes), I really don’t see why the CEO of this particular trucking company is a bad choice.
There’s no such thing as ethical trucking. I’m sure some BikePortland activists will join me on this, right? Right?
In most cities the mayor is someone tied to the real estate business and/or a lawyer (total slime), so Portland electing an industrial trucker is unusual to say the least.
No such thing as ethical trucking? Do you do your part by not purchasing any goods transported by truck?
I only use pasture raised trucking.
Did you hear Jonathan interview Keith this spring? Because that interview is what sold me on Keith, and I’ve been keeping him in my #1 spot the entire time. Titan Freight has a fantastic safety record, and to hear Keith tell it he’s constantly pushing back against his industry peers at conventions and gatherings about how they should be pro-transit, pro-bike, etc. That and he took a hard line with his drivers on safety technology. I don’t know, it seems pretty obvious to me that cycling advocates and truckers can be natural allies; we both want fewer cars driven by amateurs on the road! I don’t want to get hit on my way to work or getting groceries, and Keith wants his truckers to get from point A to B as quickly as possible (i.e. without traffic) so he can spend less on fuel and get more deliveries done.
I remain deeply disturbed by things like using PCEF as a slush fund and selling out to Zenith Energy, but isn’t it striking that Carmen Rubio’s inability to get past America’s addiction to cars may have cost her the mayoral election? Imagine if ten years ago she’d switched to public transit and/or bicycling and/or skateboarding and/or similar options, she might have held a lot more support that she lost … And yet, instead, it’s the trucking company that wins! Or rather, in the war on cars, everyone loses!!
Thank you for the mental image of Carmen Rubio on a skateboard.
She also would have saved herself a bunch of money in parking tickets