Hold on tight everyone, it might be a bumpy ride. Last night’s election saw Donald Trump sweep back into power and it wasn’t even close. What happens next is anyone’s guess, but my timelines are dark. While Democrats were doomed at the national level, Portland elections offered a much different result. Looks like a political newcomer could be our next mayor and we’ve got an interesting mix of candidates poised for City Council wins.
And with our first-ever election by ranked-choice vote, we’re still waiting for ballots to be processed and tabulations to be run. As of this morning, just two of 12 Council positions have been called.
Before I get into a recap of the five local races, I want to remind everyone that today is Bike Happy Hour. I’ll be in the Rainbow Road Plaza on SE Ankeny between 27th and 28th from 4:00 to 6:00 pm. Come out and process the election with folks who know your name and will be happy to see you.
OK, let’s go…
In the race for Mayor, trucking company CEO and nonprofit leader Keith Wilson has a lead that is likely insurmountable. He jumped out to huge lead after the first batch of votes were tabulated and has continued to pick up votes from eliminated candidates each round. Wilson is currently leading Carmen Rubio 63% to 37%. Rubio and Rene Gonzalez were neck-and-neck for several rounds, followed by Mingus Mapps and then Liv Osthus. But since many Osthus voters also ranked Wilson and Rubio highly, they benefit hugely once Osthus’ votes are transferred. The fact that Wilson isn’t strongly disliked by many voters — unlike Gonzalez and Rubio — means he’ll likely coast to victory.
Now for Portland City Council races…
In District 1 (East), three candidates are in a tight race: former Multnomah County Commissioner and political veteran Loretta Smith, nonprofit leader Candace Avalos, and Multnomah County staffer (and former city hall staffer) Jamie Dunphy. While Smith and Avalos look the strong so far, the final selection is too close to call. One candidate that has done surprisingly well, and whose votes are helping push Smith up the charts, is political newcomer Noah Ernst. Transportation nonprofit leader former Portland Planning Committee member Steph Routh is still in the mix, but it will be a very tight race between her, Ernst, and former PBOT project manager Timur Ender.
In District 2 (North/Northeast), City Commissioner Dan Ryan looks to be the lone clear winner. Close behind is union organizer and policy advisor Elana Pirtle-Guiney and City of Portland policy manager Sameer Kanal. Those three appear to be the standouts thus far. Behind them are Portland Public School Board member Michelle DePass, former small business owner Nat West, and political advisory Marnie Glickman.
The race for three seats in District 3 (Southeast) appears to be easiest to predict, with former City Commissioner Steve Novick a clear winner and schoolteacher and union organizer Tiffany Koyama Lane and nonprofit leader Angelita Morillo in solid positions for a seat. Experienced government staffer at the local and state level, Kezia Wanner is in fourth, but has only about half the votes of those top three.
Wilson blew away the competition in a lopsided victory in the mayoral race. Much like everyone thought, it came down to a five person race between Wilson, Rene Gonzalez, Carmen Rubio, Mingus Mapps and Liv Osthus. Wilson had a commanding lead from the very first round of voting and his victory was never in doubt. Rubio and Gonzalez ran neck-and-neck for several rounds, followed by Mapps and then Osthus. Gonzalez’s fate was sealed in round 17 after Osthus’ 10,241 votes were distributed almost equally to Rubio and Wilson. Rubio and Gonzalez were separated by only 400 votes before Osthus was eliminated and her votes were spread to the remaining four. Rubio received 3,475 votes from Osthus voters, Wilson received 3,244, Mapps got 1,335 and Gonzalez tallied just 580.
District 4 (West/Sellwood) is the other race where one candidate appears to be a sure thing. Policy and legislative director Olivia Clark has a strong lead. Behind her could be a very tight race for the two other seats between economist Mitch Green, chief of staff to a Multnomah County Commissioner Eric Zimmerman, and Portland Police Bureau officer Eli Arnold. Our D4 expert Lisa Caballero is working on deeper dive into how the voting has gone in that district, so hang tight.
Results of these races could change in the coming day or two, so stay tuned as more votes are tabulated.
Check out Multnomah County’s results page here. And learn more about how votes are counted (something I wish I’d done more of before now!) here.
Thanks for reading.
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Yeah, at least local results are generally encouraging (to me).
I have to say, after seeing how it went in practice, I absolutely love the ranked choice voting system. With, of course, the caveat that I think there are clear better forms of ranked choice voting, what we have now is great. I can’t fathom how anybody would prefer single votes over this. Baffling that some would prefer having their voice less heard on the ballot.
One thing I noted in particular – there is not a chance that with the old voting system we would have been able to see the result where Osthus got a 6% vote. Yeah, she was nowhere near winning, but we got to see that a not insignificant number of people thought she was worth ranking. That’s useful information! I love that we can now see who won, but also a real (not wishy washy poll related) indication of the alternatives people liked. And I got to help someone I liked well enough win, while also ranking other people higher without worrying about wasting my vote!
I hope we try again to get ranked choice state wide, after actually using it for a while. I voted yes on the measure this time, but maybe some people were reluctant since we haven’t even seen it in Portland yet. I would love to vote for representatives I actually like instead of having to defensively vote to fend off the bad option.
Some people are scared of change, and some people who support candidates that would do better under a less representative system will prefer the older system.
Really happy with how this turned out, he wasn’t my first pick but seems like a reasonable compromise, time/results will tell.
I think I feel similar to you John V. It’s really interesting to see how Osthus supporters had so much sway in knocking out Gonzalez because of how many of her voters’ votes were distributed to Wilson. This happened in the council races too. Can’t wait to digest the full results once they are in.
Maybe a semantics argument here but votes for one candidate aren’t “redistributed” to other candidates in RCV. The second or tertiary choice becomes valid if the primary one is not. If your #1 is Bob, #2 is Mary, and #3 is Suzy, your vote becomes “mobile” if Bob doesn’t make the cut-off, down the daisy chain till it finds a candidate that can make the cut-off.
Thanks Cyclekrieg. Maybe “transferred” is better? I’ll consider.
421 days for Keith to “end unsheltered homelessness”.
Tick, tock….
Yes that will be a fun question to see if he can do that. Another big question is will people who don’t see eye-to-eye politically actually come together and help on this or will people just throw stones from the sidelines and hope that he fails because he wasn’t their favorite candidate. Time will tell!
Based on the preliminary results I’m quite pleased with ranked choice. The top people in my district are all ones that I ranked and seem quite qualified. I’m also quite pleased Gonzalez got thoroughly shellacked. He could have easily won the primary and been our mayor with a minority of support. I can’t remember the last time we had a mayor with 63% support. I hope they release Rubio votes next choices to see how many also supported Wilson only after Rubio.
You can see it all here:
https://mcdcselectionsrcvprdst.z5.web.core.windows.net/a3df36c7-9b95-4614-a357-759ae2ca223f_City%20of%20Portland%20Mayor/2024-11-05_18-08-45_report_unofficial.html