Deep breath. Let’s talk about politics.
What an election season this has been, huh? Unprecedented in the amount of candidates, the potential for political change, and the scope of the campaigns — I’ve personally never been involved in anything close to this in the past 19 years. With just a few days left before the pencils-down moment of truth, I’ve got a mix of emotions that I’m sure overlap with what many of you are feeling.
Before we transition into talking about who won and why, I wanted to open up a thread to hear your views on local politics, share who you’re voting for, give one last pitch for your favorite candidates, or just share vibes. Whether you’ve voted already or not, I’m curious what BikePortlanders are thinking about this massive — and massively important — local election.
To me, the general political question in Portland right now isn’t whether our electorate has moved to the center or not. That’s settled science. After years of moving to the left that reached a peak during the racial justice and anti-police protests of 2020, I’ve talked to countless people who’ve either told me directly, or signaled in some other way, that they are more centrist in how they see our most pressing issues and the political choices around them.
Beyond private conversations with a variety of people (private because many Portland progressives (a.k.a. liberals, lefties, etc…) fear being called-out or canceled if they don’t appear left-wing enough — a common fear that speaks to a larger problem for progressivism in this city), just look at how the candidates talk on the campaign trail: There are no abolitionist candidates and I don’t think any of them want to be seen as anti-police. Even some progressive standard bearers don’t say, “We shouldn’t have more police.” They say things like, “Let’s fill existing vacancies first,” or, “Let’s make sure we send the right person to the right call.”
The big question is: How many people have moved to the center and how far have they gone?
I know several folks who are classic Portland progressives in many respects, but who’ve voted for candidates that are running on a platform that includes more police, “cleaning up the city” rhetoric, and who’ve been endorsed by Rene Gonzalez (a mayoral candidate so reviled there’s a “Don’t Rank Rene” political action committee).
While clear differences in where candidates fit on the political spectrum are still evident, the lines are not as bright as they would have been in 2020. Portland’s politics have changed significantly.
The big question is: How many people have moved to the center and how far have they gone? I have friends I love and respect who are staunchly in the “Don’t Rank Rene” camp, and others who are voting for him while challenging me to explain why I’m so skeptical. And what’s wild about this election is that, even if you could divine a solid answer to my question above, you wouldn’t have a clear road map of which candidates might benefit from this shift! That’s because many of the leading candidates are difficult to pigeon-hole into traditional left/center/right labels (I’m thinking of folks like Olivia Clarke in District 4, Jesse Cornett and Steve Novick in District 3, and Mariah Hudson in District 2).
For those reasons and others, it is very hard to predict which three candidates will get the nod from each district. I hope we get a healthy mix of political perspectives and lived experiences on council. We need candidates who disagree about key issues like homelessness, public safety, and transportation — because I’ve always believed our best ideas and policies are forged by a healthy debate and openness to “the other side.” Of course, that admittedly idealistic view only works if those 12 councilors — who were backed by different interest groups and bases on different ends of the Portland political spectrum — are willing to work together and make good policy that makes a material difference in our lives.
Then there’s mayor. Keith Wilson has a very good shot; but given the new world of ranked-choice voting and the confused mood of Portland voters, it could be anyone among the top three.
What do you think? How are you feeling about our local races? I’d love to hear your predictions, picks, and perspectives.
One last thing… Make sure your ballot is either in the mail and postmarked by Election Day (Tuesday, November 5th), or dropped into an official ballot drop box before 8:00 pm that same day. Find official ballot drop boxes on this Google Map.
Thanks for reading.
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I’ve moved to the center mostly due to recognizing that I can only know so much. It has taken my edge off but shedding some of the baggage of thinking “things should be a certain way” has me much lighter and calmer to listen to a wider variety of voices now. Vote!!!
Hey Tommy,
Hope you’re doing well. That’s interesting and I appreciate you sharing.
By “I can only know so much” are you saying that you realize you have limited ability to change some of the big things you are concerned about? And that has naturally made you more open to compromising so that you can at least see some changes instead of being locked into a stalemate?
Hello! I mean, my ideals may not actually line up with scociety’s needs requiring me to adjust my behavior to model what I’d like to see more of. Taking an L or a W… never stale. Thanks!
“Pencils-down” – ha! It does feel like an SAT now doesn’t it.
I’ve moved to the center on homelessness because I’ve come to feel that a few hundred people are destroying the livability of the region for the million plus population that lives here. It’s the definition of inequitable. For people that need housing, let’s get them housing. People that just want to steal things, break stuff, harass people on the street and take drugs should face appropriate legal consequences.
The JVP approach of “free tents and boofing kits for all” has been an epic failure and needs to be vigorously rebutted.
Having said that, Rene Gonzalez is unsuitable for a number of reasons: the Wikipedia nonsense, his desperate need to look tough (can’t he just buy a lifted truck like everyone else?), and the embarrassing ” ouch, you touched me, police!” incident.
Hi Dan,
Thanks for sharing.
I hear you on homelessness and I think that’s an issue that has definitely moved a lot of people to the center for the same reasons you outline. I think one of the biggest failings of Mayor Wheeler was to make good on his promise years ago that he would “seek out the criminal elements” (or something like that) in camps and make sure they face consequences. I realize that’s a very hard thing to do that requires close coordination with PPB and is fraught with all types of risk… but the failure to demonstrate success at that and/or to communicate progress with Portlanders about it, was a huge missed opportunity that could have earned Wheeler more trust and respect on the overall issue.
But yeah, how far does this move you to the center is the question right? For some people it’s way into the Rene Gonzalez “I will have backbone” and “law and order” and “time to get tough and arrest them” camp. Or, like I just heard from Candidate and commissioner Dan Ryan, “Let’s take our city back!” rhetoric (which I find really problematic fwiw.. from who? Why stoke anger at an undefined “other”?).
I think Gonzalez had a big opportunity to amass power that he’s squandered by being so clumsy and not building trust with people who are skeptical of him. I think Wilson drove a truck right into that space by offering a kinder, gentler version of Gonzalez that a lot of people trust. Trust is such a big thing to me. Say whatever you want about policy, etc… but at the end of the day I have to trust that you won’t go off the deep end and trust that you can build the coalition necessary to be productive and build a better city.
I appreciate you sharing your perspective. Thanks.
For local elections, I’ve become a single issue voter for transportation. If candidates do not understand or have a vision for an accessible, equitable, sustainable transportation system that causes minimal harm for individuals, communities and the global environment, then they do not understand how cities function or how they need to be transformed to meet the needs of the planet. They do not understand zoning or housing, they do not understand public health, they do not know what the priorities of a city should be and how we can increase the quality of life for all Portlanders.
If they do not have a strong transportation platform, then they are not curious and have not really thought about city government.
I’m sorry, of course everyone can have an opinion, but this is West Wing TV fantasy nonsense. This is a thing to want if you believe in nothing but you like a government that seems busy. It’s what gets you studies, and analysis, and forming committees. Endless back and forth, and any significant fix or change getting torpedoed by one of those people who disagrees. It sounds high minded and good, but in reality this is not how change happens.
What we need is to get a council that’s on the same page. Getting people who disagree is easy – it’s what we’ve had for many years. And the result has been nothing can possibly get done. The only changes that ever happen are always small and inoffensive (ineffective) enough to squeak through. Things like the rose bus lanes. Things like taking no action on homelessness. Side tangent, this is a canard people trot out, like we’ve had a deliberately hands off approach. No, we’ve had a dysfunctional approach because we have a healthy mix of perspectives and people who disagree, so the result is do nothing. We’ve done nothing. A bit of tinkering around the edges.
I mean, if you’re playing politics defensively, getting someone in who disagrees will at least slow things down, so when we inevitably get some lurch to the right, hopefully we’ll still have some people in there who disagree and keep them from getting anything done.
I agree completely with this. If you actually have principles and ideas about how society should be run, then it is totally backwards to think that it’s better to have people with ideas diametrically opposed to yours in government than having people who represent your own ideas/interests. Only someone who sees politics as a game, not literally a life and death struggle, and is materially well-off enough to be fine regardless of who wins could think that that West Wing “team of rivals” nonsense is a good idea.
Are politics literally a life and death struggle in Portland? It sounds dangerous there.
I’m glad you are refusing to hear any ideas but those in your own bubble, after all, you and your closest friends know best and those losers on the other side don’t have your high principles and correct ideas anyway so who cares what they have to say (heavy sarcasm).
Opposing ideas exist to strengthen ones owns ideas and arguments. It’s good to hear an opposing viewpoint. I would prefer to have a ruling council be made up of people with disparate ideas and walks of life, an autocracy of 12 minds with one voice and the CCP version of communism is no way to actually “run a society”. As if it’s government role to “run a society”. Goodness sakes!
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Devil%27s_Advocate_Unit
IMO, this election is utterly overshadowed by the likely election of an authoritarian who would reshape government and the courts to ensure that his movement always wins.
But, but but Gaza and you know, the price of eggs and you know I think a vote for Jill Stein fixes all that….
It’s okay to open the curtains every now and then to let some sunlight in. The invisible drones won’t see much inside so it will be safe and the light might help your mental process.
One of the benefits of the new system for council is it’s most likely going to create an ideologically diverse council. Even in the leftist districts there will likely be 25%+ of people who will coalesce around the conservative voice.
That said, it’s also led to a muddying of the waters – in their attempt to get to 25%, people say similar things in their campaigns, but are known to be pretty different. Endorsements matter more than before in cutting through the rhetoric.
For me, knowing someone is supported by the right-wing police union is helpfully disqualifying (remember the racist Hardesty smear?)
I’m hopeful that will lead to healthy dialogue at council and attempts to acknowledge nuance and try different things. Who knows?
I mixed feelings about the election and its likely results.
On the one hand, I am optimistic about the new form of government because I think, for example, that Joann Hardesty would have been great as 1 of 12 councilors, but was in my opinion just ok in the old form of government. Even Rene Gonzalez, loathsome though he may be, would have been much less damaging as 1 of 12 councilors, and I am feeling optimistic that he will not end up as mayor. I think we will ultimately end up with a more diverse set of viewpoints on city council, including at least some deeply progressive candidates and hopefully at least 1 person who actually daggone takes biking seriously as a form of transportation, whereas our current city council seems like it is mostly just PBA/Metro Councils lackeys.
On the other hand, I am pretty skeptical about much meaningful change happening for the biggest problems that we face:
I would also say that my basic experience is that people are much more progressive with abstract issues that don’t impact them, but tend to be more conservative the more directly they are impacted by the outcomes of progressive policies, which is why people will do things like support bike infrastructure (unless it makes it tougher to park their cars) or support denser housing (until someone wants to build some apartments in the neighborhood). Or, like Terrence Hayes, “support” safer streets while opposing all of the policies that actually create them.
I’ve moved to the right on homelessness after having my life threatened by campers and their dogs on multiple occasions over the last 5 years in Portland. I also go to witness the absolute destruction of the outer Columbia Slouch / Marine drive natural area by a small group of individuals up close.
It has radicalized me against Multnomah County’s hands-off approach, and any politician who promises anything less than sweeps and forced rehab.
After the PPB harassed Hardesty, if I were running for city council, I would be hesitant to be outspoken calling for police reform, defunding, etc.
The ballot itself is exhausting. I don’t mind ranking a single candidate, but picking six to get three is a little ridiculous.
I simply don’t believe what most of the candidate field is saying. They speak in platitudes, then leave us straining to hear their true stances expressed only in whispers and dog whistles.
One exception to that is Rene Gonzalez. I don’t know that I’ll rank him at all, but if I do, it’s because he is a straight shooter, if not necessarily on target. I get why people don’t like him, but it is unfortunate that this guy, in this down-ballot election, is the guy living rent free in so many people’s heads when democracy itself is up for a vote.