Shell station, someone will win a new bike.
(Photo © J. Maus)
As gas stations continue to raise their prices, River City Bicycles is asking Portlanders, “When are they going to hit $4.00 a gallon?”.
If you think you can guess the exact date, the shop will hand over a brand new Specialized Globe commuter bike (retail value $410).
Gas prices hit a record-high in the Portland-Vancouver area today when the average price for a gallon of regular unleaded hit $3.56.
River City Bicycles co-owner Dave Guettler publicized the contest in the Willamette Week (see the ad below) and he says 140 people have entered so far.
The contest is based on the selling price of regular unleaded gas at the Shell gas station across the street from River City. The contest ends tomorrow, so get your gas price guesses in now. Send an email to jasonb[at]rivercitybicycles[dot]com.
If you have questions or feedback about this site or my work, feel free to contact me at @jonathan_maus on Twitter, via email at maus.jonathan@gmail.com, or phone/text at 503-706-8804. Also, if you read and appreciate this site, please become a supporter.
If I could predict that data with so much precision, I would be working on Wall Street making so much money, I wouldn\’t care about global warming.
I submitted May 30th. If I win, I\’m gonna donate that ride to the CCC.
\’cause I\’m coolio like that 🙂
Dec 3, 2008.
I will also donate if i win 🙂
stay warm out there!
Joe
aug. 17th it\’s been 21 yrs without a car……..i just can\’t tell you how nice it is.
May 30… good answer. Economic stimulus payments should be arriving and then diverted to the Middle East. (oops, off topic).
I\’ll pick a random summer day prior to a high traffic weekend. June 26.
I\’m assuming you need to pick up the bike at the store?
Opus
I\’ve reducing my driving to probably only dozens of miles per year. Used to commute and put $100/mo in my car (back when it was $2.25). I like to think that since I don\’t do that anymore, I earn a couple free bikes per year :).
I just spoke with my sister in San Diego and she is already paying over $4.00 a gallon for premium. She didn\’t notice the price for regular.
$4.00/US gallon … those were the days!
That\’s about $1.05/litre … just a little north of you gas is currently running 1.20 – 1.25/litre {$4.52 – $4.73/US gal} and diesel is running $1.35 – $1.45/litre {$5.11 – $5.49 / US gal} .. it\’s even higher in the east.
And when I was in the Netherlands a few months ago, gasoline was selling for E1.45/litre {just shy of $7.00/US gal}
The Middle East and Venezuela aside, North America has had some of the cheapest fuel prices on the planet.
Perhaps we\’ll get to the extinction of the Hummer after all 😉
May 8th.
My 30th aniversity of not owning a car or a tv set.
My 55th birthday.
And yet another 40 mile commute.
Luv
Mark
Not gonna tell you cats the date I submitted. I need a new bike BAAAAD!
I\’m going to say, Friday 04/25/08.
And I still can\’t get an answer on if you have to pick it up in person…
What a Nice Birthday Present!
I claimed my B-day…
Been Car-free since I was in a fenderbender back on June 15 (1999).
So, when will gasoline go for it\’s real cost?
Any idea what they\’ll do if it doesn\’t?
If multiple people guess the same date, I\’m assuming that the first person to guess the date wins it. I\’d just donate it to CCC or otherwise put it to a good cause if I were to somehow magically win. Oh well. Here goes nothing.
When I tried to submit my prediction my email got rejected because the domain name was malformed after I copied it from this article, and replaced the spelled punctuation with the real thing.
Update, whoops! I included the period at the end of the sentence in the addy.
When? Not soon enough…
The day gasoline reaches $4.00 per gallon is a day that a poor person can not get to work. The money we pay for police, and other emergency services increases, and so on. The reality is that the consumerist, self-centered, sheep whom you fantasize as being the ones cringing at the cost, are about the last people who are going to care what the price of gasoline is. Do you really think that some one who can easily afford a $900 a month car payment really cares about a few extra bucks to fill their tank?
Good to ride a bike. Bad to wish ill upon those who don\’t. If River City were half as noble as they are playing, they\’d just give that bike to some one who needs it. Instead, they chose to shamelessly promote a business from which they profit, offering no consideration to an auto mechanic who just finished paying $15,000 to go to vocational school. Or the small landscaping company just getting started. Or cabbys and couriers. Or any other of the small people high gas prices hurt.
For the record, I don\’t mean to ignore the very good thing using one\’s bike is. I just don\’t think it\’s right to cheer another human being\’s demise, is all. A lot of dreams get wrecked during changes of this magnitude. Wrecked dreams quickly polarize the social environment. A little respect for the less fortunate always goes along way you know, after the battle is fought.
Vance, I\’m more worried about the fact that a couple billion people on this planet are starving right now as a result of our decision to grow corn for ethanol instead of for food, (all in the name of \”keeping gas prices down.\”) And if I have to choose between the couple hundred taxi drivers in this city making less money than they are now, or a million people starving to death in Haiti, that is a very easy choice for me…
My guess is that sometime near Memorial day weekend, we\’ll get to look back and remember $3/gallon gasoline… (But what do I know, I predicted that we\’d hit $3.50 last summer.)
vance, check your url, i think you need another period.
So, what are you gonna do when Rome is burning? I suggest building a chariot and dancing in fountains: http://www.shift2bikes.org/cal/viewpp2008.php#21-135
You mean when the dollar drops to 0.25 gal?
While maybe not the most elegant phrasing, I think Vance was trying to say that a lot of people don\’t have an option and are therefore hurt by the rising fuel costs.
I use my vehicle as little as possible but for work I need something that can haul a lot of equipment, that means a larger vehicle the gets not so good (meaning bad) gas mileage. The higher prices hurt and there is no way I can use a bike to transport my equipment. Either I earn less or my customers pay more.
But he lost me at criticizing River City Bikes for \”shamelessly promoting a buisness they profit from\”. Ummm, so they\’re not supposed to make money? Does Vance work for free?
Vance, the point you\’re missing is that there is some sorely needed social and policy change around global warming, energy (i.e., Oil Wars), and sustainability.
Whenever there is social change – or just every single day of the status quo – the poor suffer the most. But our economy cannot run without those folks, so when they hurt, so will the higher-ups.
When gas inevitably becomes unaffordable, what we\’ll be left with is lots more people on bikes and new policies that actually make sense. And, perhaps, a lot of economic disruption that causes a lot of hardship.
But it doesn\’t have to be that way. And that\’s why responsible and visionary bike activists are urging change *now* rather than waiting for the economic shock of peak oil.
This isn\’t about \”wishing ill.\” Gas prices are going to go up, and eventually they\’re going to cause the end of this car-centered ideology. The question is when and how we deal with it. The sooner the better.
Bring on that $5 gas!!
Oh you Americans are so hilarious! Three or four dollar \”gas\” is hardly expensive.
Here in Europe, we have \”gas\” at $7 or $8 a gallon, and have had so for years.
Wusses! 😉
What\’s wrong with picking it up in person? Buy an inner tube or something else while you\’re there–RCB is a great store that does a whole lot of \”giving back\” to cycling.
#20, I don\’t think you can prove the correlation. It\’s my opinion that world hunger has a lot more to do with people being subject to governments comprised of former street gangs, and other criminals. Besides, it was the global warming fallacy that led to the Ethanol fervor. If you\’ll look back at some of my comments I even pointed out that this country is so rich that we were poised to start filling our fuel tanks with food. It was the liberal left, global warming alarmists that foisted Ethanol on us.
You believe lies. If a car is a polluter, what is a coal burning electric-production facility? Cars are clearly polluters. But so are many, many American businesses; and why not clamp down on those folks, folks that in my mind can afford it? Instead, this so-called cycling community chooses to point fingers at people with whom, it can be argued, have possessions, and a life-style that you covet. I ride a bike because I cannot afford a car. I wish I had a car. I have to consider that my opinion of cagers is based, at least in part, upon my own feelings of inadequacy. You know, so that I do not have an ill opinion of anyone based on my own short-comings.
DJ Hurricane #24 you are absolutely correct. I just don\’t like it. Let me provide you an example to support your assertion. Think of a horse-farrier around the start of the last century. Social change was the phrase used to placate out of work horseman, and the industry, and infrastructure, and it didn\’t go over very well then either.
I can\’t say it enough. Riding a bike your own self, and talking it up amongst your peers is one thing; but conducting a contest of this sort certainly is a celebration in my eyes. I mean, look at the #10 comment for Pete\’s sake! If that isn\’t cheering some one\’s demise, I don\’t know what is. That coming from a frame builder no less. Can you say conflict of interest?
Fact: The weather is going nuts, just look out your window. Fact: We haven\’t the foggiest idea why. Fact: If the burning of fossil fuel is the problem, why not start at the top, and work your way down? If tighter regulation of corporate America produces lower atmospheric carbon, then why not drive? If, after the rich have been forced to take responsibility for the messes they create we find that there is still a problem, then by all means, let\’s discuss sweeping social change.
Until then you all just look like hypocrites. Except you DJ! I mean, are you concerned about the price of corn in central Africa, or are you just jealous that you cannot afford a Hummer?
Ahhh. We\’ll get through this. I just wish you\’d all remember that you will have to live with these people, afterwards. I think that everyday Joe is going to get reamed on this whole thing, rather than corporate America where the blame truly lies. I also hope that I don\’t come across as a supporter of this ridiculous Consumer lifestyle. If the environment, and social change, are the agenda, that sounds like the high-road to me. If you are going to walk the high-road, please consider the little people is all. Or something like that anyway. I\’m just jazzed no one is calling me names, and acting all mean.
As several folks pointed out, we in the U.S. are still not paying the \”true\” cost of gasoline, factoring in environmental costs, infrastructure maintenance, health, etc. And Vance is certainly correct in saying that forces greater than the average citizen are at work to make it/keep it that way. But one way or another, we all pay the true cost eventually, it\’s just been deferred. In the long run historically, I believe the period of cheap oil/single occupant trips/gas guzzling will be seen as a sad, wasteful blip. But in the meantime, it\’s going to hurt to make the transition, and those most hurt will be those already scraping by and \”dependent\” on a car in one way or another. Like any other historical boom/bust cycle, a few people made a lot of profit off this, while trying to convince the rest that it would last forever.
bring the pain! our society is lazy and self centered. it\’s time for some hardship!
Yes poorer people will be taking the brunt of the higher oil prices, but there is nothing new there. The poor take the brunt of most everything.
But the rising prices will force a rearranging of how we do things, and that can only be good.
There was an interesting bit on NPR the other day about how in some places, the fall in property values is directly related to commute times. Duh.
http://www.npr.org/templates/story/story.php?storyId=89803663
If anyone out there hasn\’t seen \”The End of Suburbia\” I strongly recommend it. They talk about the suburbs becoming the new blighted areas. This was years ago that they were saying this, and we\’re now seeing it actually happen.
While painful, high gas prices will force us to address many of the issues that we as cyclists have been talking about for years, namely car-centric development and preferences for gas-guzzling cars.
Cheap oil lulled us into a stupor. We are waking up with a hangover. Hangovers hurt.
Worrying about car usage and fuel prices is equivalent to a doctor worrying about a zit on his Aids and Cancer riddled patient.
The oil wars have not even begun yet. Wait until China starts needing more of the black juice. We are in the middle east for a reason folks. That is now OUR oil. It is going to get real messy when other nations want a sip.
Reality is not a pleasant place. Perhaps I will just lay down with ya\’ll and tuck my head under the sand for a bit.
Jean #26
I was asking because I live in Texas, and riding even a nice bike like the Globe from Portland back to Dallas is going to be rough on the old tush. Like maybe 3 weeks to a month on the road rough.
River City has given bicycles to people who need them.
Ivy, a question from an uninformed, untraveled American, has $8 gas reduced car trips in Europe? I read recently that car usage in France is only 2% less than America. Of course I haven\’t been there, but it sounds like high fuel prices have pushed Europe to develop a stellar alternative transportation infrastructure.
Oil is a finite resource and should be expensive. I think the current prices edging toward the true cost will have the positive effect of easing Americans into reconsidering unnecessary trips and seeking transportation alternatives. I expect a real crisis, but it may be a few years away and hopefully these prices will reduce the impact by influencing people to plan where they live and work now. We’ll need a little more than our corporate media, Lars and Rush to inform and educate the population though.
I don’t know if I completely derailed this thread, but 4/23 is the deadline anyway right?
Gang,
Together, we\’re gonna transfer 1,000,000 Bicycles from garages where they are not being used into the hands of people: poor, middleclass, anyone who wants to reduce their carbon footprint, waistline, healthcare costs and their part in global warming. The only requirement is that you don\’t already have a bike and that you commit to using it for something other than trying to hold up your garage with it.
May 1st http://www.onemillionbicycles.org
Vance is shortsighted with many of his arguements and just ridiculous regarding River City\’s motivations, but he does bring up issues that should and will be discussed as gas goes up and up. BTW – gas is over 4 bucks right now in San Fran. But though I haven\’t read the fine print on Dave and Mark\’s contest i\’m guessing we are betting on Portland gallon prices.
Several other good books to read regarding peak oil issues: The Long Emergency, The Empty Tank, Power To The People, The End Of Oil and Radical Simplicity.
Well, Vance, \”global warming fallacy\” sure sounds like tin-foil hat talk. And your concern for the poor would be a lot more convincing if you weren\’t attacking the progressive left – pretty much to only folks in the country that have been raising these issue long before they were fashionable.
The economic structure of the US means the poor always take the hit first. They are the US\’s economic (and in Iraq actual) cannon fodder. If you really want to see that change start voting and volunteering for the most lefty folks you can find. Because until we change the basic structure of our economy the poor will always take the brunt.
Anything else is just recycled right-wing talking points.
june 18 is the day
It goes much deeper than food vs fuel. US tariffs are really hammering the poor of all over the world.
Ethanol production is a good example.
http://www.policyinnovations.org/ideas/briefings/data/ethanol
On another note, Our house has been car free for three plus years now, (even with a two year old) and quite honestly, I wouldn\’t go back.
Our parents left a their new car here for a week while they are on a vacation and other than a trip to Salem, the car sits in our \”Veloway\”, unused.
Funny, I almost ran into it the other morning when I left for work! Scared the crap out of me cuz I forgot it was there!
I heard specialized was so difficult to deal with that few shops carried them anymore.
Who sells specialized in Porkland?
Gas has already hit 4/gal. Saw it on the news a couple weeks ago.
Our nation is failing rapidly and needs to be steered back onto the tracks. The current form of government which has failed must be put on hold for 4 years to git-er-done.
I\’ll be announcing my candidacy for dictator on You Tube soon complete with rewritten constitution.
Are you ready?
If so, submit proposals for constitutional changes that you think we need.
Come now, Greg #36. Yup. Global Warming Fallacy. That\’s what it is called when you make attempts to correlate the very real fact that the Earth\’s temperature is rising, with owning and operating a personal car. Tinfoil hat indeed. What\’s the matter, did a neo-con beat you up with that argument at work? Now you just want to play games instead of argue? Sheesh.
Between diesel production, and the textile industry, two things that have nothing to do with Hummers, they split first place with each other, in terms of top consumers of crude. That would be the food in your belly, and the clothes on your back. Furthermore, how can you eliminate the effects of deforestation from this argument? Probably the single greatest ecological disaster in the history of this planet, and nobody seems to notice. Trees eat CO2 you know. The trees are simply gone.
Consider. Any of you have an Ikea product in your possession? Container ships of the type used to nav the two ponds can burn as much as 600 gallons an hour of diesel fuel. WalMart is the problem, not personal vehicles? Building homes out of trees is the problem. Gortex instead of wool and cotton is the problem. Product packaging is the problem. The decline of Nationalism, coupled with the rise of Liberalism, has destroyed America\’s production machine. Now we HAVE to buy over-seas. But, by all means, continue to lay the blame at the feet of the people who\’ve done alright in the birth-lottery.
In my day we called it, \”conspicuous consumption\”. Whatever it is called now-a-days, it is usually symbolized by a spendy, flashy, gas-guzzler of some sort. The fact that you all are so quick to demonize this type belies your true intentions. There are so many alternative courses of action that can address global warming, why pick on people with their cars? It\’s very suspect. Plus, it is always better to attack nameless, faceless, corporations than it is to attack your neighbor, isn\’t it?
Additionally, many of you seem to forget that gasoline is not the only way to propel a car. Granted the petrol driven machine may be on its way out, but the personal car is here to stay. You\’d better be prepared for that.
I believe that you all want to get cars off the roads so your friends can sell over-priced, cookie cutter, bicycle frames (Metaphor for promoting your product, while canonizing some one else\’s.). I believe you all want to get cars off the road so that you can have more access to the public right-of-way. I believe that it is socially fashionable amongst the youth of today to be politically conscious. I believe that you all are jealous of the class directly above you, and you are willing to damn the poor in order to exact your revenge. Yup, global warming fallacy alright. I mean, steve #31 hit the nail so squarely on the head it is amazing. You folks have your finger stuck in the dike for sure.
For the record, I believe I can see global warming, therefore I inherently consider it to be real. For the record, GBUSH is just they type to consider himself a Christian Crusader. This war is as much about Christians attempting to control Jerusalem, and the area surrounding it, and keeping it secure from those heathen Arabs; as it is about oil. For Pete\’s sake, that region is quite likely the birthplace of civilization. Oil is just the excuse. A handy one at that, considering the source of income for many involved in making it happen.
We wipe our behinds with trees, and you all are talking about cars. Christians, and Muslims are going toe-to-toe, and there\’s barely a whisper about it. In the gamut of human failings, I consider the belief in some magical Jew-fairy-king in the sky to be at least on par with owning a Hummer. Which, by the way, would make this a case of, \”You reap what you sew.\”, for most of you.
Hey Vance,
If you doubt the correlation between biofuels and rising food prices, I suggest you check out today\’s Democracy Now. A good portion of it has to do with the biofuels/food dilemma. There\’s a good interview with Evo Morales too which gives a nice non-US-centric perspective on a range of issues.
Regarding the notion that we bikers are a bunch of jealous driver wannabes, I suggest that you speak for yourself. I for one own a car, and I say that not out of pride, but for simple clarification. Most of the people I know who ride also own a car. I know people who used to own cars but sold them not because they had to, but because they wanted to. Perhaps one day I\’ll get my life organized in such a way that I too can sell my car. It is one of my goals and would be nice.
You do a disservice to the many dedicated cyclists out there who do NOT covet cars, and have made a conscious decision to live a life without them. Cycling is a viable way of life that offers solutions to many of our society\’s current ills. It\’s not merely a hobby, nor should it be considered a lowly fallback for those who can\’t afford a car.
I appreciate your admission that perhaps you are dealing with feelings of \”inadequacy.\” It explains a lot.
Don\’t know where you are getting that tonyt #42. I strongly oppose the use of Ethanol for two reasons. First and most obvious is the impact on food prices. The second, cars run for crud on it. However, it was the liberal left saying, just a few months ago, \”Naw, we don\’t look at Ethanol as the end-all, be-all, just a step in the right direction.\”. NOW, after there is clear evidence of just how bad an idea this was, the liberal left is opposing this solution.
The correlation I was arguing against is global-warming, and gasoline-burning personal transpo. I say trees, everybody else seems to think cars. Who knows(?), would be the underlying point.
Ya, and many dedicated cyclists do ME a disservice as I ride a bike for no other reason, really, than I like it. The opposition to the expansion of cycling on the public right-of-way, rarely makes this distinction. For the most part, I\’ve enjoyed going unnoticed on my bike for years. Now I have people swerving their cars at me, and just messing with me in general. I feel that this is because they feel as though I subscribe to some dumb agenda. Sometimes a bike is just a bike, fella. Dragging politics into it is a catastrophe in the waiting.
Furthermore, I\’m criticizing this small group of commenter(s), here at BikePortland. I hardly think that makes me guilty of canonizing ALL cyclists. Nope. If you\’ve got a, \”Bikes not Bombs\”, sticker on your bike, I\’d be talking about you. If you ride your bike because that is the best choice for you, then you are to be commended.
Plus, it\’s pretty hard to admit being wrong about something without having a further raft of garbage launched at me. Why, when I\’m clearly attempting behave myself, do you take the opportunity to take pot-shots? I am completely, and utterly, impotent. I could no more proliferate my views than I could buy a house. You really shouldn\’t be threatened by me. It\’s just words, man. It is my opinion that all humans have at least some feelings of inadequacy. Are you saying that you don\’t?
I apologize if I am responsible for causing you to feel as though you need to hurl insults; but enough already.
Anytime someone says \”you all\” I stop listening. Talk to me, not the group you assume I joined.
The correlation I was arguing against is global-warming, and gasoline-burning personal transpo.
Automobiles are responsible for approximately 40 percent of Oregon\’s greenhouse gas emissions – the single largest source of such emission. Commercial vehicles are only a small percentage of those automobiles. Regular Oregonians driving around in their cars and trucks are a major cause of global warming.
Those are facts, Vance. If you\’re arguing against the \”correlation\” then you\’re simply ignorant of them.
Deforestation is also a contributor to greenhouse gas emissions. But this post isn\’t about land use patterns, it\’s about gasoline use. We have strong regulation of land use here in Oregon, but haven\’t even yet begun to see the regulation that\’s coming on vehicle use.
I predict the next City Council will pass a congestion tax on those driving into downtown, and I\’ll support it all the way.
And I\’m telling you that able-bodied people continuing to drive a SOV around, without exploring and using less polluting alternatives, is an IMMORAL thing to do.
And since you\’re making this personal, I make enough money to afford two hummers, don\’t have any frame-builder friends, am not young, and very rarely drive my old pick-up truck.
Excellent point DJ #45. I haven\’t seen those numbers on car emissions. Plus, I don\’t know anything about it. I do, however, know a little bit about scientific-method, and you simply can\’t measure CO2 in the air, and point to a source on the ground. That\’s the second-hand tobacco-smoke argument all over. But I\’ll concede this point.
What I want to know is what is responsible for the other 60% of these emissions (The majority as evidenced by your own numbers.); and would it be more feasible, and practical, to regulate that than to regulate people\’s personal freedoms? Why leap to conclusions and start talking about regulating the contraption that built this country? I\’ll tell you why, because of class resentment. Just \’cause you can\’t see this in yourself does not prove that it is not there. I\’m just sayin\’
MORALITY is a Judeo-Christian value and I would thank you to keep your superstitions out of the argument. Furthermore, imposing your morality on others is no different than the lack there-of, man. Perhaps you mean, \”ethical\”. Making personal decisions without considering other\’s, and their needs and feelings, is self-centered, and obnoxious. I double-dog dare ya to try and initiate legislation there. Sorry about the harsh language, I\’m regretting it now. But, dang-it, wars have been fought over people trying to foist, \”morality\”, on folks.
Bottom line is that if one finds themselves all riled up over the ways in which free people exercise their freedom, relocation is the most ethical solution, no? I hear the biking is better in, where is that again, oh ya, the Netherlands. I am completely with you, I wish Americans were interested in your existential solutions too; but are you really willing to force them into it? That looks suspiciously like the cure being worse than the disease.
Bike because you love it folks. Bike to get the benefits of biking. Then integrate the benefits of biking into your life, and use the extra stamina, and clearer mind to make your own personal life a shining example of success. Why point fingers? Why play the blame game? Why compel people to ride bikes, instead of allowing them to see how it has benefitted you, and then let them make their own choice? All of this only serves to denigrate the experience.
Look, I started riding a bike out of necessity. So I don\’t get to take any credit for do-gooding. But over the years, I\’ve watched this whole debate come to a head, and I addressed a need to exercise some personal responsibility; and eventually was afforded the opportunity to make a choice. I choose to ride. I\’m broken hearted to see people I feel should know better, people who truly have an opportunity to change the face of cycling in America forever, talking about anything but their own contribution, rather than that of an other. Moral? Ethical? Seriously, the high road here is to preserve freedom at all costs. Not to point fingers.
Oh, and thanks for not being personal even though you feel I was. I truly appreciate that. And, if you are doing that well, I sure could use a job. You gotta hook-up for me? 🙂
$3.89 today, up from $3.83 earlier this week.
If people want to burn food for fuel, why not do it directly? Pedal! If using up grain for ethanol and other \”biofuel\” production means we\’re headed for peak Grape Nuts ™, then I am in big trouble!
So the price went up 50 cents (thus passing the $4 mark) in less than a month.
I wonder what River City is going to do for the $5 main event?
Oh, my mistake, they\’re waiting for it to hit $4 at the Shell station across the street. Not too late to get your bids in, then, but the contest should end any minute now…