Hold on tight everyone, it might be a bumpy ride. Last night’s election saw Donald Trump sweep back into power and it wasn’t even close. What happens next is anyone’s guess, but my timelines are dark. While Democrats were doomed at the national level, Portland elections offered a much different result. Looks like a political newcomer could be our next mayor and we’ve got an interesting mix of candidates poised for City Council wins.
And with our first-ever election by ranked-choice vote, we’re still waiting for ballots to be processed and tabulations to be run. As of this morning, just two of 12 Council positions have been called.
Before I get into a recap of the five local races, I want to remind everyone that today is Bike Happy Hour. I’ll be in the Rainbow Road Plaza on SE Ankeny between 27th and 28th from 4:00 to 6:00 pm. Come out and process the election with folks who know your name and will be happy to see you.
OK, let’s go…
In the race for Mayor, trucking company CEO and nonprofit leader Keith Wilson has a lead that is likely insurmountable. He jumped out to huge lead after the first batch of votes were tabulated and has continued to pick up votes from eliminated candidates each round. Wilson is currently leading Carmen Rubio 63% to 37%. Rubio and Rene Gonzalez were neck-and-neck for several rounds, followed by Mingus Mapps and then Liv Osthus. But since many Osthus voters also ranked Wilson and Rubio highly, they benefit hugely once Osthus’ votes are transferred. The fact that Wilson isn’t strongly disliked by many voters — unlike Gonzalez and Rubio — means he’ll likely coast to victory.
Now for Portland City Council races…
In District 1 (East), three candidates are in a tight race: former Multnomah County Commissioner and political veteran Loretta Smith, nonprofit leader Candace Avalos, and Multnomah County staffer (and former city hall staffer) Jamie Dunphy. While Smith and Avalos look the strong so far, the final selection is too close to call. One candidate that has done surprisingly well, and whose votes are helping push Smith up the charts, is political newcomer Noah Ernst. Transportation nonprofit leader former Portland Planning Committee member Steph Routh is still in the mix, but it will be a very tight race between her, Ernst, and former PBOT project manager Timur Ender.
In District 2 (North/Northeast), City Commissioner Dan Ryan looks to be the lone clear winner. Close behind is union organizer and policy advisor Elana Pirtle-Guiney and City of Portland policy manager Sameer Kanal. Those three appear to be the standouts thus far. Behind them are Portland Public School Board member Michelle DePass, former small business owner Nat West, and political advisory Marnie Glickman.
The race for three seats in District 3 (Southeast) appears to be easiest to predict, with former City Commissioner Steve Novick a clear winner and schoolteacher and union organizer Tiffany Koyama Lane and nonprofit leader Angelita Morillo in solid positions for a seat. Experienced government staffer at the local and state level, Kezia Wanner is in fourth, but has only about half the votes of those top three.
Wilson blew away the competition in a lopsided victory in the mayoral race. Much like everyone thought, it came down to a five person race between Wilson, Rene Gonzalez, Carmen Rubio, Mingus Mapps and Liv Osthus. Wilson had a commanding lead from the very first round of voting and his victory was never in doubt. Rubio and Gonzalez ran neck-and-neck for several rounds, followed by Mapps and then Osthus. Gonzalez’s fate was sealed in round 17 after Osthus’ 10,241 votes were distributed almost equally to Rubio and Wilson. Rubio and Gonzalez were separated by only 400 votes before Osthus was eliminated and her votes were spread to the remaining four. Rubio received 3,475 votes from Osthus voters, Wilson received 3,244, Mapps got 1,335 and Gonzalez tallied just 580.
District 4 (West/Sellwood) is the other race where one candidate appears to be a sure thing. Policy and legislative director Olivia Clark has a strong lead. Behind her could be a very tight race for the two other seats between economist Mitch Green, chief of staff to a Multnomah County Commissioner Eric Zimmerman, and Portland Police Bureau officer Eli Arnold. Our D4 expert Lisa Caballero is working on deeper dive into how the voting has gone in that district, so hang tight.
Results of these races could change in the coming day or two, so stay tuned as more votes are tabulated.
Check out Multnomah County’s results page here. And learn more about how votes are counted (something I wish I’d done more of before now!) here.
