Deep breath. Let’s talk about politics.
What an election season this has been, huh? Unprecedented in the amount of candidates, the potential for political change, and the scope of the campaigns — I’ve personally never been involved in anything close to this in the past 19 years. With just a few days left before the pencils-down moment of truth, I’ve got a mix of emotions that I’m sure overlap with what many of you are feeling.
Before we transition into talking about who won and why, I wanted to open up a thread to hear your views on local politics, share who you’re voting for, give one last pitch for your favorite candidates, or just share vibes. Whether you’ve voted already or not, I’m curious what BikePortlanders are thinking about this massive — and massively important — local election.
To me, the general political question in Portland right now isn’t whether our electorate has moved to the center or not. That’s settled science. After years of moving to the left that reached a peak during the racial justice and anti-police protests of 2020, I’ve talked to countless people who’ve either told me directly, or signaled in some other way, that they are more centrist in how they see our most pressing issues and the political choices around them.
Beyond private conversations with a variety of people (private because many Portland progressives (a.k.a. liberals, lefties, etc…) fear being called-out or canceled if they don’t appear left-wing enough — a common fear that speaks to a larger problem for progressivism in this city), just look at how the candidates talk on the campaign trail: There are no abolitionist candidates and I don’t think any of them want to be seen as anti-police. Even some progressive standard bearers don’t say, “We shouldn’t have more police.” They say things like, “Let’s fill existing vacancies first,” or, “Let’s make sure we send the right person to the right call.”
The big question is: How many people have moved to the center and how far have they gone?
I know several folks who are classic Portland progressives in many respects, but who’ve voted for candidates that are running on a platform that includes more police, “cleaning up the city” rhetoric, and who’ve been endorsed by Rene Gonzalez (a mayoral candidate so reviled there’s a “Don’t Rank Rene” political action committee).
While clear differences in where candidates fit on the political spectrum are still evident, the lines are not as bright as they would have been in 2020. Portland’s politics have changed significantly.
The big question is: How many people have moved to the center and how far have they gone? I have friends I love and respect who are staunchly in the “Don’t Rank Rene” camp, and others who are voting for him while challenging me to explain why I’m so skeptical. And what’s wild about this election is that, even if you could divine a solid answer to my question above, you wouldn’t have a clear road map of which candidates might benefit from this shift! That’s because many of the leading candidates are difficult to pigeon-hole into traditional left/center/right labels (I’m thinking of folks like Olivia Clarke in District 4, Jesse Cornett and Steve Novick in District 3, and Mariah Hudson in District 2).
For those reasons and others, it is very hard to predict which three candidates will get the nod from each district. I hope we get a healthy mix of political perspectives and lived experiences on council. We need candidates who disagree about key issues like homelessness, public safety, and transportation — because I’ve always believed our best ideas and policies are forged by a healthy debate and openness to “the other side.” Of course, that admittedly idealistic view only works if those 12 councilors — who were backed by different interest groups and bases on different ends of the Portland political spectrum — are willing to work together and make good policy that makes a material difference in our lives.
Then there’s mayor. Keith Wilson has a very good shot; but given the new world of ranked-choice voting and the confused mood of Portland voters, it could be anyone among the top three.
What do you think? How are you feeling about our local races? I’d love to hear your predictions, picks, and perspectives.
One last thing… Make sure your ballot is either in the mail and postmarked by Election Day (Tuesday, November 5th), or dropped into an official ballot drop box before 8:00 pm that same day. Find official ballot drop boxes on this Google Map.